National Emissions Forecast Centre

Observers of Australia’s climate change policy generally agree that the Government has all but accepted that Australia must achieve net zero emissions by 2050. However, the 2020 Emissions Projection, published in December, shows that while Australia is broadly on track to reach its emissions reduction goals as set out in the Paris Agreement, the 26% to 28% national target for 2030 does not position Australia well in the quest for net zero by 2050. In this paper we consider what the current national trajectory means for business: where opportunities may lie and where advocacy should be pursued to strengthen climate policy settings.

The Prime Minister has spoken about “more than 100 new technologies” to reduce Australia’s emissions. In this report, Energetics examines other potential technologies. We show where substantial investment to accelerate their take up could be made and identify those technologies that are simply not feasible within the Australian context.

In the first of a series examining the technology pathways that Australia could adopt to achieve a net zero emissions economy, Energetics has reviewed Australia’s emissions projections 2019, published by the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment in December 2019.

How well is Australia’s economy tracking to decarbonisation? The most recent update of Australia’s greenhouse gas inventory offers the opportunity to do two things. We can re-evaluate the emissions trajectory to 2030 and, as Australia’s inventory report is nearly 30 years old, extrapolate trends to form a view of business-as-usual emissions out to 2050. In this report, Dr Gordon Weiss presents the results and look at the sectors with the greatest decarbonisation challenges.

Energetics has revised the national emissions reduction trajectory in our latest report. Results show that Australia will comfortably meet its 2020 cumulative abatement target, with or without carryover from CP1, thereby fulfilling our international commitment for that target period.

Energetics’ modelling supports the case for early action to address rising emissions showing that for every tonne of abatement achieved prior to 2020, Australia’s emissions reduction task to achieve our 2030 target is reduced by a factor of three.

Click here to download a pdf version of the report.