National Emissions Forecast Information Centre

Dr Gordon Weiss, arguably Australia’s leading forecaster of the national greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, routinely updates the forecast and considers the impacts of different policy measures. In this Centre you can access his reports and other related insights.

 

Resources

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    Tracking Australia’s emissions to 2020 and implications for 2030
    Issued: August 2016

    Energetics has revised the national emissions reduction trajectory in our latest report. Results show that Australia will comfortably meet its 2020 cumulative abatement target, with or without carryover from CP1, thereby fulfilling our international commitment for that target period.

    However, Australia will not achieve its absolute target which requires national emissions levels in 2020 to be 5% lower than those in 2000. This is because national emissions have grown by 1.3% since 2015 and are forecast to continue to grow. The recent upward swing in national emissions is significant not just because of the threat to the 2020 absolute target. In missing the 2020 absolute target, the challenge of meeting the 2030 target is substantially greater.

    Energetics’ modelling supports the case for early action to address rising emissions. Our modelling shows that for every tonne of abatement achieved prior to 2020, Australia’s emissions reduction task to achieve our 2030 target is reduced by a factor of three.

    Click here to download a pdf version of the report.

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